Israel Matzav

Is Hamas 'Moderating'

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For the first time, Hamas is plunging wholeheartedly into the electoral battleground, a decision that has thrown Palestinian and Israeli politics into confusion as both sides wonder whether joining an elected Palestinian government will moderate Hamas, or whether Hamas will radicalize the government.

No one is sure whether Hamas's political campaign is a Trojan horse to push Palestinian society closer to Islamic rule and return it to all-out war with Israel, or a sign that the increasingly influential group is becoming more pragmatic.

Hamas's inclusion in the election has drawn criticism from Israeli officials and threats from the United States and Europe to cut off aid to Palestinians. But its campaign has injected new energy into Palestinian politics, giving voters what they see as their first real alternative, if an imperfect one, to the Fatah party founded by Yasser Arafat.

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Palestinians are ambivalent about the use of violence, opposing further attacks on Israel but believing attacks are effective, according to Shikaki's work at the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

Sixty percent of Palestinians oppose continued attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip, and 80 percent favor continuing a truce with Israel that has brought 10 months of relative calm, he found.

Yet in the same survey, 86 percent also said armed struggle brought Palestinians their greatest recent gains in the conflict. [But... but... why does Kadima Achora insist that withdrawing expelling all the Jews from Gaza was a 'brilliant Israeli tactical decision.' CiJ]

Hamas's political leaders are playing down their military wing in their appeal to a broader swath of society.

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Hamas, he said, still wants ''Palestine from the river to the sea" -- and believes in retaking the land from Jordan to the Mediterranean, including Israel. But on the way to that ''strategic goal," he said, the group might back negotiations with Israel ''under certain circumstances" and would support an ''interim solution."

Such language cracks open the door for Hamas to someday accept a state in the West Bank and Gaza only, although Mansour declined to say if he supported that.

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Israeli officials dismiss Hamas's campaign as a diversion from its real aim of continuing violent struggle.

''There's no serious evidence whatsoever that Hamas is actually moderating," said Mark Regev, a spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry, noting that Hamas militants kidnapped and stabbed to death an Israeli candy factory owner in September without any public condemnation from Hamas leaders.

''If Hamas ever had a dominant position in the PA, that would be the end of the peace process, not because of anything Israel would do but because of who Hamas is," Regev said. ''From Israel's perspective, the Palestinian leadership is making a terrible mistake by letting Hamas run. They're undermining their own democracy because Hamas has not disarmed."...

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:04 PM