Does empathy for PM affect polls?
Israel MatzavDoes empathy for PM affect polls?
I know that a lot of you have been wondering whether Kadima's continued good showing in the polls will change once the reality of what has happened to Ariel Sharon sets in. My gut reaction is that it has to change - Ehud Olmert is not Ariel Sharon. Olmert is not a war hero; he's not a tactician. He's a sleazy local (Jerusalem) politician who hitched himself to the right bandwagon at the right time. And the Israeli public is not as stupid as we sometimes think they are as this analysis from Ynet indicates:
... However, political sociologist Yagil Levy of Ben Gurion University says he believes Kadima will start dropping in polls once Israelis start worrying for Sharon the person, rather than Sharon the leader.
"Whether Sharon departs from this world or merely leaves politics, the empathy will turn into compassion," he says. "In the coming days the attorney general is expected to announce the prime minister is permanently unable to serve as prime minister. That's the point where Kadima will be approached just like other centrist parties. This means it will not receive 40 mandates."
Levy estimated Kadima will end up winning 15-30 Knesset seats.
However, Levy says that Kadima still has several advantages compared to other parties.
"Kadima is not portrayed as a socioeconomic leftist party, like (Labor party leader Amir) Peretz, and not like a socioeconomic rightist party, like (Likud leader Benjamin) Netanyahu. As such, it has a large niche," Levy said.
Obviously, how big a player
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:57 AM
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