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Monday, January 19, 2015

Israel called Hezbullah's bluff

This is getting embarrassing... for Hezbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Lebanese analysts say that Israel called Hezbullah's bluff with Sunday's strike along the Golan border.
"What happened is that the Israelis called Hizbullah's bluff last night," said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University in Beirut.
"Hizbullah will not be able to retaliate, because if it retaliates, it will be another war. Hizbullah is in Syria and it is not ready for another war against Israel." 
Khashan said the movement could resort to small-scale attacks, like a roadside bomb on the ceasefire line with Israel it claimed last year, but would avoid a more serious response.
"Nasrallah will say the Israelis are trying to provoke us to help in their elections and we will not fall into their trap. That's the best they can do," he added.
Sources close to Hizbullah told As Safir daily that the party's retaliation to Sunday's strike is "inevitable.”
But the officials said the retaliation would not lead to an all-out war.
“The party will take the time it sees necessary to set its next steps with calm and decisiveness,” they added.
In Israel, analysts made the same calculation.
Yes, but Hezbullah is not the sole arbiter of whether there will be a war, nor will it decide when and how Israel might respond to a Hezbullah revenge attack. What if Israel responds by flattening the Dahiyah (Hezbullah's Beirut stronghold) or Beirut Airport?

By the way, Naharnet (the source for the story above) is also claiming that an Israeli 'security source' has confirmed that Israel was behind the strike on the Syrian side of the Golan. Here in Israel, that has not yet been confirmed.

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