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Friday, December 12, 2014

How we could end up with a Leftist government

The polls show that the public wants a Right wing government, albeit not necessarily one led by Binyamin Netanyahu.

The polls also show that the public may not get what it wants from the upcoming elections. Here is why:
The latest poll, carried out by Midgam for Channel 2, indicates that a Labor ticket, after the merger with Hatnua, would receive 24 Knesset seats.

Likud would receive 23 seats; Jewish Home 15; Yisrael Beytenu 8; Shas 9 and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 8. This means that the traditional right wing-religious bloc would have a slim majority of 63 seats, or two more than it currently enjoys.
Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party would receive 9 seats, and Meretz would have 5. The Arab parties would split 11 seats between them.
But that majority may be illusory because the Haredi parties have already said that they will go in with Labor rather than sit in a coalition with Jewish Home
Asked whom they would like to see as the next prime minister, 36% said Binyamin Netanyahu, while 33% said they preferred a rotation between Tzipi Livni and Yitzchak Herzog.
Midgam is considered to be leftward leaning.
The last politician I can recall falling as far and as fast as Netanyahu was George HW Bush after the first Gulf War.

Here's another poll which is quite different
Likud would win 25 mandates if elections were held today, according to the survey published by the Geocartography Institute. By contrast, the Labor-Hatnua pact would win just 18 seats - a far cry from the major wins predicted in other polls, and four seats less than a previous poll held by the institute on December 9. 
Interesting, Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party would become the third strongest party in the Knesset, with 12 seats, up from ten in the December 9 survey. 
Jewish Home would gain fourth place with 11 seats, signifying a drop from its current 12; United Torah Judiasm would also gain 11 seats, up from ten; Shas, despite internal conflict between MKs Aryeh Deri and Eli Yishai, would win ten seats, up from six. 
Below that, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu is projected to gain nine seats in thee 20th Knesset, up from eight - whereas Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid fell to eight seats in the Knesset from its current 19. 
The poll, as reported by Walla!, did not list results for several of Israel's smaller political parties, including Meretz, the Arab parties (United Arab List and Balad), Hadash, Kadima, and Otzma Yehudit.
The Geocartography Institute poll stands in stark contrast to other surveys in the Israeli press recently, including a Panels Politics poll for Maariv which gives Labor the win at 24 mandates against Likud's 20.
That poll indicated, however, that the majority of Israelis would nonetheless prefer a right-wing government with a coalition including the hareidi parties.
Huh? I saw polls that said that a huge number of Israelis did not want the Haredi parties in the government (not that it really matters, in case you hadn't figured that out).


By the way, keep in mind that the pollsters here tend to be very biased.

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