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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Think tank: Iran to have 'undetected' nuclear capability by mid-2014

A report issued by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) on Tuesday warns that Iran will achieve a "critical capability" to produce sufficient weapon-grade uranium by mid-2014, without being detected, simply by carrying out its current plan to use centrifuges at its declared Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities. ISIS recommended that the IAEA increase inspections, but suggests that is unlikely to help. According to ISIS, if the US and/or Israel don't act before Iran becomes nuclear capable, Iran will have one or more nuclear weapons.
If the United States and Israel hesitate to strike out of fear of facing international opposition, the ISIS warned, "Iran could have time to make enough weapon-grade uranium for one or more nuclear weapons."
According to the report, breakout times at critical capability would be "so short" that there would not be enough time to organize an international diplomatic or military response.
"IAEA inaction or caution could make an international response all but impossible before Iran has produced enough weapon-grade uranium for one or more nuclear weapons," the ISIS report stated.
According to the ISIS, there are reasons to conclude the Iran could now be building a new centrifuge plant, "based primarily on Iranian officials’ past statements."
A new plant could produce sufficient weapon-grade uranium relatively quickly if the centrifuges worked well, the ISIS reported.
"The immediate priority must be limiting the number and type of Iran’s centrifuges at Natanz, Fordow, or a site not yet finished," the ISIS stated, calling on the P5+1 negotiators to achieve the suggested conditions and prevent the progression of the Iranian nuclear program.
But don't hold your breath waiting for Obama to do something. It's going to be up to Netanyahu to act. What could go wrong?

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