The bogus American polls
On Monday, Jennifer Rubin exposed her own newspaper's bogus polls. Specifically, the one that says Hussein Obama is leading by 11 points in 'swing states.'
As I learned from Post pollster Jon Cohen, that finding is based on the responses of a total of 160 people, and it has a margin of error of 8 percentage points. So yes, there may be a difference between swing-state and national numbers, but the gap might be very small or it might be big.
Moreover, the swing-state votes aren’t aggregated. You need to look at each one separately. The presidential contest is a race to 270 electoral votes. So the true battleground states (sorry, that doesn’t mean Michigan or Pennsylvania) are where things will matter.
And the pollsters were forced to admit that Jennifer was correct (an hour and a half after her piece came out).The Obama team and its dutiful media spinners were emphatic for a week or so that the race had been blown open. Now they will point to the gap between national and swing-state polling. But really how large is that. Look at the Virginia polling. Is the margin there two points or eight points? In Ohio, is the margin one, nine or four points? Take your pick.
Recent state polls from other public pollsters in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Wisconsin mainly show the same thing: advantage Obama.
Pulling out respondents in these eight states — all of which Obama won in 2008 — from the new national poll, shows Obama at 52 percent and Romney at 41 among likely voters. We report these numbers to help connect the dots between the clear Obama leads in the collection of states and the continued closer parity nationally, not to suggest pinpoint precision on what’s happening now in any particular state.
Out of 929 registered voters in the new poll, 161 live in one of these eight states, with a margin of sampling error of eight points. The likely voter sample in these states is about nine points, making the 11-point gap an apparent edge. That margin is significant at the 80 percent confidence level, not a standard, conservative 95 percent threshold, which we take as added evidence of the state-of-play in state polling, and the crucial link between those and the national numbers (49 percent for Obama, 47 percent for Romney). No such dissection of a national poll — no matter how many interviews — could be anything more than that. They are simply not designed that way.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Campaign 2012, Mitt Romney
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:15 AM
4 Comments:
Much, much more information on the MSM's cooked pro-Obama "polls" at UnSkewed Polls.
Big Journalism has been covering this as well. Their focus is mostly the oversampling of Democrats in polls - even to the point of predicting heavier Democratic turnout than in 2008 which is absurd. The Celebrity was swept into office on heavy turnout of the least dependable voter groups - young people and African-Americans - and by winning over independents. Mr Obama is playing to much smaller crowds these days and whoever is selling Obama bumper sticker scrapers is making a fortune. How many Republicans were Democrats this time four years ago? We all know someone.
In a week, early voting starts. Our neighborhood has only a couple of yard signs up and those are for our U.S. Senate and House Republican candidates. Zero for Romney/Ryan and zero for Obama or any Dem candidate. I think people are totally freaked out and the important thing will be for them to get to the polls and use their *secret* ballot to vote Republican all the way up and down. That's what it will take to beat the cheater voter rolls in multiple states.
The Univision documentary on Fast & Furious gun running to drug cartels is going to leave a mark out here along the border. Although normal internet traffic is completely ignoring it. I see the U.S. Jewish organizations doing press releases against Pamela Geller's subway ads, but ZERO response to the rivers of blood they helped (and are still helping) institute in Mexico. Not a word. Amazing. Does look like Daily Caller is delving into the documentary a little (and BTW, what does everybody think the Obama Thugs are doing in Egypt, Libya, Syria, etc.? Hmmmm????? If they'll set up *Mexico* for the slaughter, and let it go on and on in Chicago, they obviously don't care who dies.):
Univision: Juarez drug cartel leader "El Diego" was captured with Fast and Furious weapons
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/01/univision-juarez-drug-cartel-leader-el-diego-was-captured-with-fast-and-furious-weapons/
In a curious segment on CNBC, MSNBC's Chuck Todd this morning went on to explain how according to MSNBC/Obama, not only will turnout be in the 65% range but that 65% of them, will vote for Obama.
I think they have truly taken leave of their senses.
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