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Friday, August 03, 2012

Economic model concludes that Obama will lose in a near landslide

Let's not get too cocky here. An economic model based upon per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president’s term, and cumulative U.S. military fatalities in overseas conflicts predicts that President Obama will lose in a near landslide in 2012 (Hat Tip: Instapundit).
Political scientist Douglas Hibbs looks at two factors when forecasting presidential elections: a) per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president’s term, and b) cumulative U.S. military fatalities in overseas conflicts.

And he’s predicting a near-landslide win for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama, with Obama losing by about as big a margin in 2012 as he won back in 2008. Under Hibbs Bread and Peace model, Romney wins 52.5% to Obama’s 47.5%.


And How is Hibb’s track record?
The only postwar presidential election results not well explained by the Bread and Peace model are 1996 and 2000. In 1996 the vote received by the incumbent Democrat Clinton was 4% higher than expected from political‐economic fundamentals, whereas in 2000 the vote for the incumbent Democratic Party candidate Gore was 4.5% less than expected from fundamentals. I am tempted to argue that idiosyncratic influence of candidate personalities took especially strong form in those elections, with the ever charming Bill Clinton looking especially attractive when pitted against the darkly foreboding Bob Dole in 1996, and the unfailingly wooden Al Gore paling by comparison to an affable George W. Bush in 2000. Alas, this line of reasoning is entirely ad hoc and without scientific merit.
Reading Hibb’s entire paper, I get the sense he is not thrilled with what his model is telling him. He even mentions that he’s a big fan of betting markets, and they show an Obama win. But the model says what it says — even he kind of gently suggests Romney is another stiff, just like Dole and Gore.
What could go wrong?

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At 4:04 AM, Blogger Captain.H said...

The thing is, Republican state victories have to be beyond the margin of Democratic vote fraud. THAT is the real reason the Democrats are opposing Voter ID laws, ridiculously claiming them to be "racist". How many millions of minority votes for the Democrat candidates, esp. president, are fraudulent? How many millions of illegal Hispanics are voting in the Sunbelt states, for Democrats of course?

Canada requires govt-issued voter photo ID; all the nations of the EU require govt-issued voter photo ID. Does the Democratic Party want us to believe that Canada and all the nations of the EU are "racist"?

At 9:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

5% is a big margin?????

20% is a big margin. 5% is a statistical deviation.

I'm hoping for a 65% to 35% win for Romney.

Optimistic? Depends how stupid American voters have remained over the last 4 years.

At 12:10 AM, Blogger 935684 said...

Captain.H, not true about Canada.

At 1:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ShyGuy, what business is it of yours? American elections are not your business. You are an illegal settler, sweetheart:) I'd be more concerned about Bibi in power, when Obama wins a 2nd term. If Israel has any sense,it will rid itself of Bibi, otherwise, it's war.

Since you're in occupied Jerusalem, if I were you, I'd be preparing to shift to Tel Aviv. Either that, or you'll have a brand new shiny passport, with Palestinian Citizen on the front cover. That is assuming, the Palestinians don't do unto you what you did unto them. Our moral code forbids that. Not that you don't deserve expulsion, but we don't sink to your (moral bankrupts) level.

At 1:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Douglas Hibbs needs to stop smoking magic mushrooms. Here are the facts:

Sharp Trader: Obama Will Win
A quantitative trader with an excellent record at calling elections sees Obama beating Romney.

August 02, 2012
New poll: Obama leads Romney in key swing states
Chris Matthews talks to DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and the Washington Post’s Eugene Robinson about a new poll that shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney in key battleground states.


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