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Sunday, May 06, 2012

Netanyahu election call part of lead-up to Iran strike?

You will recall that on Friday, I speculated as to some of the reasons why Prime Minister Netanyahu might be calling elections now.
3. Netanyahu was not going to attack Iran before September anyway, but he will have a new government in place before November 6 if he feels an attack on Iran is necessary.
The Iran part of the story might be even bigger than that.
Netanyahu is set on Sunday to announce that he is dissolving parliament and calling elections for September 4 — a year ahead of schedule. In the weeks immediately after that vote, said well-connected commentator Amnon Abramovich on the top-rated Channel 2 news, Netanyahu will head a transition government at home and have no need to worry about voter sentiment, and he knows that President Barack Obama will be paralyzed by the US presidential campaign.


But Abramovich said that the dramatic decision to bring the elections forward relates to Iran. After the September elections, which all polls show Netanyahu winning easily, he will head a transition government for several weeks while a new coalition is formed. During that period, Netanyahu “will not be beholden to the voters,” and will be free to take decisions on Iran that many Israelis might not support, Abramovich said.

Furthermore, he will still have his trusted Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, at his side. Barak is seen as unlikely to fare well in the elections, and may not even retain his Knesset seat, but would retain the defense portfolio until a new coalition is formed.

And finally, said Abramovich, the September-October period would see Obama, who has publicly urged more patience in allowing diplomacy and sanctions to have their impact on Iran, in the final stages of the presidential election campaign, with a consequent reduced capacity to try to pressure Israel into holding off military intervention.

Obama, “on the eve of elections, won’t dare criticize Israel,” said Abramovich. From Netanyahu’s point of view, “the conditions would be fantastic.”
Read the whole thing.

Yes, it's believable.

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At 4:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Plausible maybe. Also wishful thinking. Bibi himself says, well, Iran hasn't come up once in all the discussions about moving the elections up.

The notion that a government of Israel would factor in their ability to break President Obama's balls over the High Holy season as a major stop/go factor in approving an attack on Iran substitutes wouldn't-it-be-neat back-of-the-envelop psychological reads on the American political scene for the best-case worse-case thinking that will precede an actual attack if it ever comes.

But what does Bibi know?


At 4:13 AM, Blogger HaDaR said...

That is: Netanyahu doesn't want to spoil it for Obama, like a servant (or a dog) tries to please his master?
Will we have him to thank ALSO for another 4 years of Obama, besides the thousands of deported Jews, destroyed homes and villages, the continuation of Oslo after his election in 1996, the gift of 80% of Hebron to terrorists in 1997, etc?


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