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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Should the IDF let Hamas take over?

Here's an interesting idea from JoeSettler to prevent the 'Palestinians' from winning the unilateral declaration of a reichlet in September.
I was listening to a talk by Professor Guy Bechor of the IDC the other day.

He has an interesting position and solution.

He said that Israel is at a disadvantage against the Palestinian Authority, because they are considered “moderate” by the world, even if they aren’t.

He adds that the Palestinian Authority has not collapsed yet for one reason. Israel.

The IDF keeps Hamas at bay, thus sustaining the Palestinian Authority. The Foreign Ministry completely agrees with this assessment.

Bechor proposes that Israel pull back the IDF from operations in the Arab controlled areas and stop security cooperation at that level.

The world would applaud Israel (for a day or so) for pulling out.

But at this point, it is only a short time until the Palestinian Authority is overthrown by Hamas, which is more explicit in their goal to destroy Israel.

We would have a situation in Areas A of Judea/Samaria like we have in Gaza.

Bechor believes that perhaps enough of the world would accept the concept that a Hamas controlled territory doesn’t deserve a recognized state.
JoeSettler goes on to analyze some of the risks to Israelis (including himself) that would inure as a result of Hamas being in control. But on the whole, he seems to believe that allowing Hamas to take charge of Judea and Samaria would prevent the General Assembly from voting in favor of a 'Palestinian state.' Read the whole thing.

I disagree. I believe that the General Assembly is going to vote in favor of a 'Palestinian' reichlet whether Judea and Samaria are controlled by Hamas or Fatah. The Organization of Islamic Countries will all vote in favor, even with Hamas in charge, as will the so-called Non-Aligned Movement. That will be more than enough for a General Assembly majority.

The West may also be convinced to vote in favor - or at least those countries that can be convinced that Hamas has a 'political wing' and a 'military wing' can be convinced to vote in favor of a 'Palestinian state' run by Hamas.

The United States will probably vote against if Hamas is in charge - after all, the vote will be only 14 months before the US Presidential elections - but in the General Assembly that matters little because the United States has no veto, and in any event, no one seriously expects - for now at least - that the United Nations will send troops to fight with Israel.

What could go wrong?

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At 11:51 AM, Blogger JoeSettler said...

I actually believe Bechor misses a few points with his interesting idea (at least as far as I understand his thesis).

1) Hamas is more likely to wait until after September to take over if they believe that the vote will go through and it is to their advantage to wait.

2) There is a serious risk that a PAmas unity government will be formed by then.

3) The world won't really care that Hamas is in charge.

But as I said, toppling the PA is a worthy goal in of itself.

At 12:32 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

All of those goals can be accomplished by annexing Yesha and dissolving the PA.

The PA has outlived its usefulness.


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