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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Poll: Kadima beats Likud but Right beats Left

As a result of Labor's disintegration, Kadima has extended its lead over Labor in the latest election polls, but the Right has extended its lead over the Left, and Prime Minister Netanyahu gets much higher marks than opposition leader Livni.
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

31 [28] Kadima lead by Livni
26 [27] Likud
17 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
11 [11] Shas
06 [13] Labor
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
04 [04] Nat'l Union
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 [11] Arab parties
[none of the 500 people polled said that they would vote for Ehud Barak's party]

Total Right: 66
Total Left: 54

What factor most impacts your choice of party?
23% Economics
21% Personality of leader (integrity)
15% Security
14% Personality of leader (leadership)
09% Policy regarding borders and the territories
18% Other

What grade do you give to the government?
Lousy 26% Bad 20% Middle 39% Good 12% Excellent 3%

What grade do you give Prime Minister Netanyahu for his performance as prime minister?
Lousy 24% Bad 17% Middle 36% Good 18% Excellent 5%

What grade do you give to the leader of the opposition Livni for her performance as leader of the opposition?
Lousy 32% Bad 19% Middle 33% Good 12% excellent 3%
I'm kind of surprised to see that economics rate ahead of security. But note that Kadima and Meretz are beneficiaries of Labor's disintegration (3 seats each), with Yisrael Beiteinu also picking up a seat each from Likud and Labor.

But there's likely to be a while before the next election.... Still, it's 66-54 for the Right. That's a real lead in this country (66-43 without the Arab parties).

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At 9:15 PM, Blogger Y.K. said...

This poll is essentially a repeat of the previous elections (all the differences are minor and probably within MOE, except Labour disintegrating even more). Arguably an actual (unlike in 2009) negative Likud campaign mentioning Kadima's faults (corruption, incompetence, not actually having a different economic policy, etc.) could push this further.

There are however two important issues to consider:

A. We should not repeat the fiasco of the 1992 elections, when HaTheyia went below the threshold. So we need to make sure the NRP should pass the election threshold. No need to lose 3+ mandates over nothing.

Perhaps they and the National Union could get over their differences and unite. Or alternatively, they can fold into the Likud. Otherwise, I'll have to consider a tactical vote, and I don't like this...

B. What happens if Lieberman is charged? I guess any lost vote will run to the Likud. But this should be checked in a poll, and I've never seen a poll which checks this.

At 9:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone has a funny idea of what qualifies as "right". To put it mildly, they are wrong.

We are messed up but good! Stupid Jews!

At 9:58 PM, Blogger biorabbi said...

Yea, Carl, interesting poll. I missed at first, thinking Kadima was really picking up new voters, but, wow, Labour has collapsed.

I don't think this is just the left failing, changing Israel from a socialist, poor economy of the 50's to the go-go high-tech economy of today. It's partly that, partly changing demographics within Israel, partly a trend toward religious practice and belief. It's all that, but it's also the fact the Israeli left appears to be quite incompetent.

The only one I like a bit is Barack and it looks like he threw labor under the bus. He saw the handwriting on the wall.

Think of it in another manner. The failing labour support within Israel is a testament to Israel's success in the economy, society, culture. Israel in the late 40's, early 50's was obviously a different country so socialism/labour made more support then. Same thing with the Kibbutz movement's demise. IMHO, this whole movement from the left to the right within Israel is directly tied to the long term societal success of Israel.

I saw all this as a pathetic leftie myself(on all issues except Israel), or a Dershowitz liberal(another dying breed).

At 8:27 PM, Blogger Ron Skolnik said...

"(66-43 without the Arab parties)": Why, in a democratic country, would you include this? This is very discouraging. It makes me feel as if all Israelis are equal, but some are less equal than others.


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