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Wednesday, September 01, 2010

WJC security panel

I arrived a little late this morning at the WJC; I came in the middle of the second speaker. My colleague Shalom has been kind enough to email me his notes, which I am adding below.

The session opened by showing the video that I showed you here.
Dore Gold

Wye agreement. 3 additional redeployments, Israel decides size. US then said must be “credible.” Sharansky says how can we agree to any deployment. Neyanyahu asked army to develop interests map re: Israel security needs in W Bank and Golan HTs.. N presented to P. Clinton in Wash. Lesson: rather than political and diplomatic agreement 1st, then given to IDF to figure out – process reversed.

Rare Opportunitiy with Arab world bcse of threat from nuclear Iran to regional subversion to Sunni Arab world. But 1st What are security requirements of Israel. DNK what region will look like in 5 years (US out of Iraq and Afgan)

Our role to strengthen US hand, bcse many will try to erode our security requirements

2000 Barak dnw to withdraw from Jordan valley. Army offered intnl forces w Israeli component. US pocketed idea but wo Israel component! Danger of creative negotiating.

Uzi Dayan

18 years ago started to achieve peace agreement, lesson of Oslo process that failed. Not only territorial conflict . Land for peace doesn’t work. It’s reverse more you give the more they demand. Making concessions to achieve peace agreement which will bring security doesn’t work. Diplomacy based security changed to solid security arrangements. !st priority = security. Defensible borders, not just like very state, but agreed in Bush letter 2004 approved by H. Clinton and Rahm Emanuel

Where are defensible borders? Not 67 lines. 1. Enuf Territory to repel conventional attack from the East. (Iraq in every war ag Isr) 2. Strategic depth to deploy early warning interception batteries 3. Demilitarized only if Israel is in control entire envelope (imagine missiles from Judea and Samaria like from Lebanon and Gaza
Now listening to Udi Dekel, who says that the 'Palestinians' agreed in 1993 that any entity they had would be demilitarized. He says that the only way to have real security is to dismantle the terror organizations.

When Dore Gold introduced Udi Dekel, he told everyone to look at the picture below (the entire study from which it comes is here and was handed out to participants but not to the media - I'm considered media - I think there are more copies available outside, but I downloaded it onto my laptop and if anyone wants a 4mb email, drop me a note). The picture shows a commercial jetliner (circled) taking off from Ben-Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv as seen from adjacent Palestinian territory in the West Bank. A SA-7 shoulder fired missile or a Kassam rocket fired from this vantage point would stop all commercial aviation into and out of Israel.

Two kinds of threats: From within the 'Palestinian' territory and from outside the territory coming through the 'Palestinian' territory. 'Palestinians' used to say that peace will bring security, but we now know that's not true. 'Palestinians' used to say that if the deal was good enough the people would abandon Hamas. That's apparently not true either.

Three pillars of security:

1. Demilitarization with a police force that is NOT a military force. They don't need an air force to dismantle terror. They need to achieve law and order. They need to prevent terror against Israel. We need to keep IDF freedom of action. We need conditional strategic depth. You can protect Jerusalem from Jerusalem or any other city - you need room to maneuver. We can't have a Philadelphi corridor like in Gaza. It only takes one minute for a jet to reach Jerusalem from the Jordan Valley. We can't let them cross to our side. We can't split air space because we can't protect our cities that way.

2. International presence - we need international presence to inspect and to back up why we operate when we operate.

3. Regional security - we need regional cooperation to stop weapons smuggling.

Next speaker is Major General (Res) Yaakov Amidror.

Ben Gurion insisted that Israel must be able to defend itself.

His first experience with international forces in the Middle East was the Indian contingent fleeing from Gaza. They had been expelled by Egypt.

We're now in the question and answer session.

20 years later he had to deal with UNIFIL - an obstacle for the IDF and an umbrella for Hezbullah. UNIFIL could not recognize terrorists - only IDF could and IDF had to learn to bypass UNIFIL.

After Second Lebanon War we were told UNIFIL would be made stronger. Well, we know what happened there - Hezbullah has strengthened under the UNIFIL umbrella. UNIFIL has not arrested a single terrorist or stopped a single truck from bringing weapons to Hezbullah. Their main mission is to defend themselves. UN is fine if there is no war, but they cannot stop anyone. The only place they have been successful is Korea and that's because it's American forces. The only way to secure Israel is to have the IDF in the Jordan Valley. No one else will fight on our behalf.

Dayan said outright that the only sane solution is for the 'Palestinian state' to have its capital in Amman.

Gold says that you have to decide whether Israel's security positions on the Jordan should be on 'Palestinian territory.' Gold says that wherever we have security needs, we have to have sovereignty.

Dayan says that as long as Gaza is a separate entity, what are we talking about? Three states for two nations?

Reader Sunshine - you would have loved this session. Maybe you can go see it on the webcast. It's the first session of the day.


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