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Monday, September 20, 2010

Iran and Syria to back Hezbullah coup in Lebanon?

At a brief Saturday meeting in Damascus on his way from Tehran to New York, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad agreed with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that the two would support a Hezbullah coup against the Lebanese government, according to a report by DEBKA which has been picked up Lebanon's Naharnet. This is from the DEBKA link.
Hizballah called a general mobilization that same day and by Sunday had 5,000 armed men deployed in Beirut, ready to make good on its threat to seize power rather than let its leaders be indicted by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) for the Hariri murder.

Hizballah went into action after learning that the indictments were on the way. Ahmadinejad and Assad were of one mind that they must not be delivered - even it meant helping their Lebanese Shiite surrogate to overthrow the Lebanese government. They discussed possible Israeli intervention to save Beirut from Hizballah domination and decided that the Jewish state Israel would not take this risk, any more than the Lebanese army would fight to defend the government.

Our Lebanese sources disclose that France's UN ambassador Gerard Araud passed word to his Lebanese contacts that Daniel Bellemare, the STL's chief prosecutor's decision to file charges against Hizballah was final.
The rest of the article discusses the Sayyed incident at Beirut Airport on Sunday, which I discussed here. Sayyed was one of four Lebanese generals who was arrested and held for four years on suspicion of being involved in the murder of then-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, the father of current Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri.

I think that they're right about Israel not interfering to save Hariri's government. No one is going to risk IDF soldiers' lives for that. And I doubt that the Lebanese army can or will do anything either. UNIFIL? Don't make me laugh.

What could go wrong?


At 5:24 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

Israel is not going to intervene on behalf of a hostile government that has not only appeased Hezbollah but which shows no gumption about facing it down.

Far better that the world really sees who runs Lebanon.

At 6:04 PM, Blogger Y.K. said...

Is it actually in Israel's interest to save Hariri's government (without taking heed of any possible costs of doing so)? After all, it's not like they oppose Hizballah actively as far as attacking Israel is concerned - in practice, they provide cover for it (like during the last war).

A Hiz-dominated-after-coup Lebanon would not be more hostile, but it would be a much poorer and weaker Lebanon (and assuming an STL indictment - with a government having no legitimacy).

At 9:48 PM, Blogger Andre (Canada) said...

Big surprise. I'll go back to sleep now.


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