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Sunday, April 25, 2010

Why Iran won't attack Israel?

Here's a Los Angeles Times op-ed from a 'Palestinian' who believes that Iran would not attack Israel because of the holy sites in Jerusalem and because of all the 'Palestinians' who would be killed in such an attack.
Yet the pesky Palestinian minority Morris wishes had been expelled decades ago serves as a deterrent from a nuclear-armed Iran, should the Islamic Republic ever build nuclear weapons and consider using them on Israel. The fact that Arab Israelis were among the casualties of the 2006 war with Hezbollah speaks to the reality that no nuclear attack on Israel could happen without the deaths of countless Palestinians and Israelis, not to mention the likely destruction of Jerusalem, the third holiest site in Islam.

The reality of Palestinian casualties, the destruction of Jerusalem, the onset of regional war and the immediate destruction of Iran's regime as a result of a multilateral conventional or even nuclear counterattack all serve as a credible deterrent to a nuclear Iran. The Iranian leadership has shown a demonstrable interest in self-preservation.
The argument above - made by one Yousef Munayyer is nonsense. He's correct that 'Israeli Arabs' were killed in the 2006 Lebanon War. But that shows the exact opposite of his proposition. It shows that militant Islam is indifferent to casualties among Muslims. There is no reason to think that Iran will behave any better than Hezbullah did.

Moreover, the rest of the Islamic world will sell any 'Palestinian' casualties in an Iranian attack as shahidim ('martyrs'). Here's a post I did four years ago about the Arabs of the city of Nazareth during the Second Lebanon War. Note that they supported Hezbullah. Eventually two children from Nazareth were killed by a Katyusha rocket fired from Lebanon. And their parents went on Israeli television to rail against Israel. Why should Iran care about Muslims when 'Israeli Arabs' would regard any Muslims killed by Iran in attacking Israel as shahidim?

But what Mr. Munayyer misses completely is that if he is correct and Iran would not attack Jerusalem, it's an argument for Israel maintaining a unified Jerusalem and concentrating strategic assets around the city. Now there's some food for thought.


At 12:07 PM, Blogger yzernik said...

The threat of nuclear war is one of the strongest arguments in favor of Israel retaining the West Bank.

At 12:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Rafsanjani said that Muslims must surround colonialism and force them [the colonialists] to see whether Israel is beneficial to them or not. If one day, he said, the world of Islam comes to possess the weapons currently in Israel's possession [meaning nuclear weapons] - on that day this method of global arrogance would come to a dead end. This, he said, is because the use of a nuclear bomb in Israel will leave nothing on the ground, whereas it will only damage the world of Islam."
- MEMRI report, Former Iranian President Rafsanjani on Using a Nuclear Bomb Against Israel, Jan. 3, 2002

At 3:05 PM, Blogger Abu Yussif said...

sure the muslims of nazareth didn't mind that they were made involuntary shaheeds by hizbullah, but there was for them was the additional upside that any arab christians killed will be considered expendible infidels who deserved it anyway (meaning quite a significant segmant of the arab population is not automatically predisposed to supporting muslim terrorists).

At 6:16 PM, Blogger Moriah said...

We know Muslims don't really care about other Muslims if they somehow stand in the way of their rape, murder and pillaging...

At 8:33 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

And they don't care if they lose their entire population as long as Israel is annihilated. The Arabs don't view the value of a human life the way Israeli Jews do and the way people in the West do. The mentality among them and the Iranians is entirely different from ours. Deterrence won't work on them the way it worked between the Americans and the Soviets. I don't imagine that any Israeli government wants to stake the country's existence on the questionable proposition that under no circumstances will Iran ever attack Israel.

At 8:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

the theory doesnt hold water

the holy sites and the arab population didnt stop sadaam from firing scud rockets into israel during the first gulf war

i personally dont believe that iran will attack israel because iran and all the other muslim nations need an enemy that they can point to to keep their peoples minds off of their own problems

if israel doesnt exist...the arabs will turn on themselves

At 2:47 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

The difference is, Israelis die to live, Muslims live to die.

At 10:34 AM, Blogger Afarin Maleki-Raei said...

Glorious Iran will respond to an attack that eventually will come. Iranians world wide are expected to counter act and destroy the Zionist in every country. I will be making a trip to NYC when an attack takes place. It is our Muslim duty.


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