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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Rosner's three predictions

Shmuel Rosner makes three predictions regarding the denouement of the current crisis between Israel and the United States.
Anyway, I'm not going to translate the whole thing, but at the end of the column I'll be making these three predictions - based on information:

1. Netanyahu will compromise (or "cave") and is getting ready to agree to some American demands.

2. Mitchell will be coming to the region, maybe even next week - or right after Pesach. He will come even if the crisis will be quite over yet.

3. Proximity talks will start soon after Israel's Independence Day.
Unfortunately, he's probably right on all three of them.


At 9:27 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

Unfortunately, I think he's right. Netanyahu is no Begin. His obsequiousness in the face of Obama's blatant hostility to Israel is just nauseating.

The only real question left is how far he will go to pay the price Obama is demanding.

At 10:06 PM, Blogger Y.K. said...

Actually, I'm not sure I entirely agree with the result. Nethanyahu will find it very hard to cave on Jerusalem. A possible compromise therefor would have been that Nethanyahu would give in to other unrelated Obama demands while the state of Jerusalem is unchanged. Howver, the entire public facet of the conlict is over Jerusalem, and since Obama already looks weak, he can't risk losing face.

So I think we end up with a position were neither side can (for now) afford to cave. It's quite possible that Obama will use another event (HCR signing/rejection?) as a smokescreen for withdrawing his main demand but getting some other concessions from Israel eventually, but if he waits too long he'll just lose, as the midterms approach and prolonged Israeli defiance also makes him look weak.

At 12:52 AM, Blogger NormanF said...

Yair - the reported "don't ask, don't tell" compromise is that facing saving formula. Basically, Israel holds off building in Ramat Shlomo for a few years, since it takes that long for building to start and in the future Israel will build quietly and the Americans won't make a fuss about it. The reported agreement allows both sides to declare victory and move on but it was completely unnecessary since it was Obama who instigated this confrontation to no real advantage in the first place.

At 11:01 PM, Blogger J. Lichty said...

Any new concession would be a disaster, rightfully seen by the WH and Abbas as not only an immediate victory, but a road map to future victory.

Create a kefuffle. Blame Israel. Reap the concessions.

I understand Bibi's strategy, to try to appease the US on the Palestinian track in exchange for more cooperation over Iran, but that ship has already sailed.

Obama's charade is exposed and Israel is alone. More concessions will only make it worse.


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