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Monday, February 15, 2010

Russia to force military action on Iran?

Prime Minister Netanyahu traveled to Russia on Sunday to, among other things, try to convince the Russians not to deliver S-300 anti-missile systems to Iran. The S-300 would make an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities much more complicated. But the Russians, who have seemed more flexible on sanctions lately, seem to be doing whatever they can to ensure that the sanctions won't work.
Netanyahu was expected to try to persuade Russian leaders to implement sanctions against Tehran, and to receive assurances that the Kremlin is committed to freeze its supply of advanced S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Iran.

But Russia said Sunday that it saw no reason to stall on the sale.

"There is a signed contract (to supply S-300 missiles) which we must implement, but deliveries have not started yet," Vladimir Nazarov, deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council secretary, told Interfax news agency in an interview.

"This deal is not restricted by any international sanctions, because the talk is about deliveries of an exclusively defensive weapon," he said.

Nazarov also said a military strike on Iran would be a big mistake and that the problems linked to Iran's nuclear program must be resolved only by diplomatic means.

"Any military action against Iran will explode the situation, will have extremely negative consequnces for the entire world, including for Russia, which is a neighbor of Iran," he said.

Russia is believed to support sanctions targeting governmental bodies directly involved in Iran's nuclear program, but not those aimed at striking the country's economy as a whole.
Sanctions that only target 'governmental bodies directly involved in Iran's nuclear program' would be even more useless than Obama's sanctions that only target Iran's Revolutionary Guards. And any indication that Russia is going to deliver the S-300 to Iran would be an almost certain trigger for an Israeli strike, because an installed S-300 would make a strike much more complicated.

What could go wrong?


At 2:04 PM, Blogger Kumar said...

Russia is no better than China when it comes to nuclear proliferation or supply of lethal weapon systems. Possession of nuclear technology with delivery capability makes Iran a threat not only to the region but to the whole world. If the supply of S-300 does not get stalled for one reason or the other, a pre-emptive strike or an attack by covert means is on the cards.

Russia is trying to turn a blind eye in the case of Iran just as the US looked the other way round when Pak was busy stealing nuclear technolgy from the West. Whoever thought that the cold war was over?

At 2:59 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Hi Carl.
Have you ever been in Russia?
Then you would know how the "Russians" feel about the Israeli.
You still have a star in your Russian pasport showing that you're of Jewish decent.
Not much has changed in the last 100 years there it might look different but that's a small layer of laquer.
They will deliver those S-300 to Iran and feel good if Israeli planes get shot down.

At 3:48 PM, Blogger nieuwe_zijde said...

I don't think that today's Russia is really motivated by anti-American or anti-Israeli sentiments.

Nothing would make Putin happier than a strike on Iran, and for a very simple reason: the price of oil. Since the terminal of the oil faucet is for all practical purposes located in Putin's pocket, it is of critical importance to him to have the oil price shoot up to the sky, which the war with Iran will surely deliver.

I keep wondering if Obama's attempts to co-opt Russia are just cynical lip service or he is so genuinely stupid that he sincerely believes Putin can be persuaded to play along.


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