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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

The end of sanctions against Iran?

J.E. Dyer says that after this past weekend's failed P5+1 meeting, we can just about 'put a fork' in the possibility of sanctions against Iran.
Whether it’s France’s Total SA bidding with China to develop Iranian gas fields or German port operator HPC contracting to manage the container port in Iran’s Bandar Abbas complex, our P5+1 partners are engaging themselves to make a lot of money from precisely the commercial activities we would have to sanction to affect Iran’s nuclear aspirations.

Recent summaries like the ones here and here recount the many ways in which commerce is outrunning the political sentiment for sanctions. That sentiment is by no means strong or unified to begin with: Russia has been extraordinarily consistent in its position that there’s no evidence Iran is even pursuing nuclear weapons. Vladimir Putin reiterated that position on Jan. 7 after two previous Russian assertions to the same effect in December (here and here). Indeed, Putin said it in 2008, 2007, and 2005, a record we have heroically disregarded in our eagerness to negotiate alongside Moscow.

Obama’s effort, launched in September with the dramatic revelation about the nuclear site near Qom, is done. On assuming the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council on Jan. 5, China announced that sanctions against Iran will not be on the council’s agenda for January — a promise more credible than Obama’s December deadline. Either we change the pace of our diplomacy right now, or the nations concerned will conclude that U.S. diplomacy is irrelevant. Procrastination at this point means certain failure.

What could go wrong?


At 1:36 AM, Blogger Chrysler 300M said...

the last week was a little more encouraging, one nuke engineer was moved to the 72 virgins as was a judge today.

I cannot understand, why there are no serious attempts, especially from the israeli side to remove Ahmad and KH. This would make military action unnecessary.

At 1:59 AM, Blogger Mr. Gerson said...

Chrysler, he was not a nuclear engineer - he was a university professor and part of the Green movement.

At 2:19 AM, Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

The targeting of the Iranian gasoline refineries would have a nice impact on Iran.

Why not shoot off a few rockets to hit them and then deny...

Deny that Israel had anything to do with it...

And then target the top 15 ammo dumps in Southern Lebanon all at the same time and DENY...

And then, light up an EMP over Teheran...

and deny...

rinse and repeat over Damascus and Gaza City


Speak of Peace


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