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Sunday, November 29, 2009

What if....

At the end of a lengthy article about the possibility of Israel attacking Iran (yes, but not as soon as people think), Amir Oren of Haaretz asks the following question:
In closed meetings, Israel has been flexing its muscles and saying that it is not worthwhile for Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran to test its seriousness. The behavior during the Gilad Shalit affair contradicts this pose. Israel can shout a thousand times a day that the deal for the release of Palestinian murderers will definitely be the last. But if Talbot and other foreign observers are correct in their assumptions that the burden of an Israeli operation against Iran would fall on the Israel Air Force's squadrons of war planes, Israel must prepare for the possibility that the aircraft will be hit by enemy fire or will encounter technical difficulties - as with missing IAF navigator Ron Arad's Phantom jet - and not all of the pilots will be rescued.

If members of flight crews fall into Iranian captivity, the Iranians will likely put them on trial in order to condemn them to death and open a bazaar of multi-stage negotiations. In return for rescinding the death sentence and reducing it to a life sentence, Iran will demand the release of all the other murderers in Israel; afterward, in return for the release of the pilots, navigators and other captured soldiers, it will demand far-reaching concessions on completely different issues. For example, in Jerusalem; or in the field that General Myers brands a "nuclear-armed" Israel. Would the Israeli public, which persistently pled for the government to sign the Shalit deal, dare to suddenly refuse? Would Benjamin Netanyahu, who is tough-talking but soft in action, not fold again, as is his wont?
I hope someone in the government has thought about this, especially in light of the fact that they are about to release 1,000 terrorists in exchange for one IDF corporal. I think you all know where I stand on the question. If God forbid a pilot is shot down, we try to rescue him, but we do not release terrorists in an 'exchange.'

What could go wrong?

The picture at the top is missing IDF navigator Ron Arad (since 1986) in captivity.


At 5:22 AM, Blogger NormanF said...

The dummies in the IDF and the government ought to know not a single human life has to be risked to cripple Iran's nuclear capability. A single Jericho missile equipped with an EMP warhead is sufficient to do the job without any loss of Israeli life. Or do they not know it is impossible to pull off another Osirak? You can bet the Iranians are prepared for it. Either Israel is going to refight the last war or it is somehow going to take Iran by surprise.

I'm betting on the latter given the distance from Israel involved.


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