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Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Doomed to fail?

Daniel Pipes argues that President Obama's foreign policy, which has 'moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen sitting back and waiting for the Obama administration to force Binyamin Netanyahu from office, is doomed to fail.
Even if one ignores the folly of focusing on Jerusalemites adding recreation rooms to their houses rather than Iranians adding centrifuges to their nuclear infrastructure and even if one overlooks the obvious counter productivity of letting Abbas off the hook – the new U.S. approach is doomed.

First, Netanyahu's governing coalition should prove impervious to U.S. pressure. When he formed the government in March 2009, it included 69 parliamentarians out of the Knesset's 120 members, well over the 61 minimum. Even if the U.S. government succeeded in splitting off the two parties least committed to Netanyahu's goals, Labor and Shas, he could replace them with right-wing and religious parties to retain a solid majority.

Second, the record shows that Jerusalem takes "risks for peace" only when trusting its American ally. An administration that undermines this fragile trust will likely confront a wary and reluctant Israeli leadership.

If Washington continues on its present course, the result may well be spectacular policy failure that manages both to weaken America's only strategic ally in the Middle East even as it worsens Arab-Israeli tensions.
Well, maybe. The problem is that if Labor (12) and Shas (11) were to leave the government, the only right-wing or religious party that is not currently part of it is National Union (4) and Netanyahu showed little interest in bringing them into the government when he was forming it.

On the other hand, while I see the possibility of Labor withdrawing from the government down the road, I believe it's very unlikely Shas would withdraw. If Labor withdrew and National Union went in, Netanyahu would have a magic 61.

Assuming that Yisrael Beiteinu doesn't withdraw if Avigdor Lieberman is indicted and they lose the foreign ministry as a result.

It's never a dull moment here, isn't it?


At 7:18 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

No it isn't. I think Netanyahu can use the threat of the Zionist parties outside his coalition to say to the US if you push me, you will end up seeing a side of me you don't like. Blackmail can work both ways and Obama may his discover his Israeli counterpart has that trump ace up his sleeve. Which would put things in a whole new light.

Its not over yet by a long shot.



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