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Thursday, April 23, 2009

Good advice for Obama on Iran

One can only hope and pray that President Obama will listen to advice like this, even if its source is an Israeli think tank.
The Iranians have already made a significant gain, when the US more than hinted that there would be no prior linkage between negotiations and the suspension of enrichment activities. The Iranians are famous for their tactics in playing for time. The US must not fall into that trap. Therefore, President Obama must set himself a time limit even if he does not disclose it to anyone. One can understand why a public disclosure could be seen as presenting Iran with an ultimatum and, given the Iranian sense of pride, greatly diminish the possibility of reaching an agreement. In setting the time limit, the President must remember that any time gained by the Iranians during the negotiation process would be used to further advance their project. In addition, one must bear in mind that nothing would induce the Iranians to "rollback", and demolish any achievement, in materials or facilities, as a part of any agreement. This could only come about by a profound change in the Iranian regime, and even then this is not certain.

Although for the US there is also the grave economic crisis to deal with, this will be resolved one way or the other, given enough time and allocated resources. In a way the Iranian nuclear issue is the Cuban missile crisis all over again. It will test the ability of the newly-elected US President to confront the adversary and better him. In a way this is a make or break situation for Obama.
Given the IAEA assessment that Iran will have accumulated enough Low Enriched Uranium to enable it to further enrich it and produce 25 kilograms of High Enriched Uranium, should it wish to do so, by the end of this year, six months (from now) for talking is too long.


At 4:19 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

Agreed. The time window for a last diplomatic push is a short one - and unlikely to bring about meaningful results. I doubt the mullahs will make major concessions to make life easier for Obama. Just the opposite since they know how desperate the US is to get an agreement - any agreement before Israel comes in and blows up the detente to smithereens.



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