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Friday, December 26, 2008

Lost Likud votes not going to Kadima

Thursday night, I reported that Likud was losing votes to 'nationalist parties' as a result of Binyamin Netanyahu's shabby treatment of Moshe Feiglin. At the time, I noted that there was no indication of which 'nationalist parties' were gaining ground. Now, there are more details.
Latest polls show Likud losing strength but most of them show that this support is not going to Kadima but to to Shas, Lieberman's 'Israel Our Home' and the Jewish Home. These polls show the "right wing bloc" as maintaining a solid lead over the "left wing bloc" despite Likud's losses. An independent website's 'poll of polls' which averages out the polls of the week shows Likud leading Kadina 31:26 despite the Maariv poll.
I don't think I would call Shas a 'nationalist party.' For that matter, I'm not sure I'd call Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu a 'nationalist party' either (although they support 'transferring' 'Israeli Arabs' to a 'Palestinian' state reichlet, they also support the creation of that reichlet and the re-division of Jerusalem - positions that are anathema to most nationalists).

Oh, and for those of you who keep telling me in the comments that if I don't vote Likud I'll get Kadima, please consider the next line in the linked story.
Netanyahu has said he plans to form a unity government with Kadima if elected.
It seems that if I vote Likud, I WILL get Kadima, but if I vote for a more right-wing party, there's a much better chance Netanyahu won't be able to form a coalition without the right wing and that he won't be able to form one with Kadima.


At 2:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Still confused?

The latest poll shows that Kadima and Likud are neck and neck with an actual edge to Kadima winning.

So you'll vote for who? Lieberman? Yishai? Whoever's in Degel? Bayit Yehudi? And you'll get Tzippi, your Feigeleh!!!

And since when are SHAS, Yisrael Beitenu or Degel "right wing"? Just look at their tushy licking record.

Habayit Hayehudi, a.k.a., Meimad II?

You're only making things worse again.

As for Bibi joining with Kadima, I've said that's what would happen all along. So that's no suprise. But you keep on forgetting how much more damaging such a coaltion will be without any opposition from within the Likud.

You're damned no matter who you vote for but you be more damned the weaker the Likud.

Hakol hafuch!

At 6:15 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

There are limited choices for conservative voters in Israel. In my view since Bibi is LINO, it makes sense to strengthen the parties to his right. Otherwise Israel is going to be set to face a repeat of the disastrous policies of the past 16 years. The weaker the Left is, the less reason Bibi will have to justify continuing Kadima's policies. If he has to form a coalition of the Right, he will face constraints from more hawkish partners. No, its not perfect but its the best result that can be hoped for next year.


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