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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Iran considering pre-emptive strike against Israel?

According to reports by Dr. Seyed Safavi, the head of the Research Institute of Strategic Studies in Tehran and an adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran is considering a preemptive strike against Israel. The Iranian official said that leaders in Teheran are considering a preemptive strike against Israel in order to prevent an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

And yes, this too is connected to the US elections. Let's go to the videotape and then I'll have some comments.

The problem with this story is that it is all too believable. If Iran is in fact capable of launching a pre-emptive strike, they would have every reason in the world to launch one. Israel has no real government right now, and even if Tzippi Livni (who got a two-week extension on Monday) succeeds in putting together a government, it looks more and more like it will be a narrow government with lots of 'peace elements' that would be unlikely to support an Israeli pre-emptive strike. The Iranians would have a free hand until Israel gets its act together. While Israel would likely retaliate, the effect of that initial strike would - God forbid - be devastating.


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