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Friday, August 01, 2008

Livni would beat Netanyahu?

Both Haaretz and YNet have headlines this morning that indicate that polls that they commissioned show that Kadima led by foreign minister Tzipi Livni would beat the Likud led by Binyamin Netanyahu. The polls were taken just before Olmert announced his eventual resignation on Wednesday night.

Things you need to know about polls in Israel:

1. They are woefully inaccurate. Israel's 'Dewey beats Truman' race happened in 1996 - some 48 years after the original. It turned in part on a massive shift of Jewish votes to Netanyahu over Peres (during the brief period in which we directly elected a Prime Minister) based on a campaign that claimed Netanyahu was 'good for the Jews.'

2. 'Israeli Arabs' and ultra-Orthodox Jews tend to be under-represented.

3. Israelis tend to lie to the pollsters, 'just for the fun of it.'

If Kadima really believes this poll and Livni wins the primary, they'll call new elections as soon as the primary is over. Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen.


Just to prove my point above, recall that another poll on Wednesday night showed Netanyahu winning by a wide margin, trouncing both Livni and Barak. The difference between that poll and these two is far beyond any margin of error.

The polls here really are inaccurate.


At 10:21 AM, Blogger Mother Effingby said...

Say it ain't so!

At 12:50 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

The political environment in Israel today is inhospitable to the one remaining viable strand of Zionism - National Religious. And its under ferocious attack by the country's Leftist elite.


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