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Sunday, July 20, 2008

US to attack Iran after US elections if six-power talks fail?

Israel Radio reported on its 4:00 AM news Sunday morning that the US will attack Iran if the six-power talks - which broke up inconclusively in Geneva on Saturday - fail. The source for the report was a 'senior Israeli security source.' DEBKA reports on possible motivations for the 'security source' talking to Israel Radio:
DEBKAfile’s political sources describe the disclosure as a step aimed at slowing down the collapse of Israel’s stated policy of relying on international diplomatic pressure to thwart Iran’s acquisition of nuclear arms. It is expected to raise a furious outcry from the powers spearheading the diplomatic effort and prompt extreme reactions from Tehran.

Our sources report that the unidentified Israeli “security-political” source [I did not hear them say 'security-political,' although that is a phrase Israel Radio would use. Then again, I was barely awake at 4:00 AM. CiJ] sought to achieve three objectives:

1. Underlining the signal that the US military option had not been taken off the table after the state department spokesman said Iran must choose between cooperation with the international community and confrontation.

The official was also giving Israel’s answer to the latest evaluations making the rounds in Washington that the Israeli Air Force does not have enough warplanes to strike Iran’s nuclear sites without American military support.

2. A signal that the presence at the Geneva talks Saturday, July 19, of Under Secretary of State William Burns, far from being a concession, was an implicit ultimatum. Tehran was being told that no more than three months remained for it to suspend uranium enrichment before Bush made good on his pledge to resolve the issue before he left the White House. No member of the Bush administration is saying this directly, whether Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Robert Gates or the president himself. Israel will not doubt be rebuked for its disclosure.

3. As a high-risk step to derail the accommodations Washington and Tehran are on the way to reaching in their secret talks on a wide range of issues, with the exception of the nuclear controversy, as revealed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly and DEBKAfile. Israel fears being abandoned and left out in the cold on all its fronts against Iran by these accommodations.

Tehran may well seize on the Israeli disclosure as a pretext to ditch the nuclear negotiations on all levels, unless all six powers offer guarantees against their pursuit of military initiatives.
On Thursday, I reported (from DEBKA) that Burns' trip to Geneva, and the US intention of opening an 'interests section' in Tehran, were not well-received in Israel.
Our US sources confirm that this step distances the Bush administration still further from Israel’s policy position, which calls for the curtailment of Iran’s drive for a nuclear bomb by all means, including military action. It leaves Jerusalem alone in the arena against Iran on the nuclear and other security issues, such as Hizballah, Syria and the radicalized Lebanese government.


This new White House orientation has thrust Israel to the outer edge of its Middle East policy in favor of placing its most extreme enemies at the center. Prime minister Olmert, foreign minister Tzipi Livni and defense minister Ehud Barak find their foreign policies bankrupted.
Israel continues to wish that the US will do its dirty work in Iran. That may or may not happen. We may have a better idea of the chances of it happening later in the week, since IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi heads to Washington to meet US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman William Mullen on Sunday.


At 2:08 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 2:11 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

The bozos running Israel would like to have done for obvious reasons is to have someone do for them what they are capable of doing themselves. Their real fear isn't Israel failing in Iran but rather what that would mean for their political careers.


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