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Monday, January 14, 2008

The two-reichlet solution comes to pass?

Back in June, when Hamas took over Gaza, I wrote a post entitled The two-reichlet solution, in which I argued that if anything it was more likely that Hamas would take over the 'West Bank' than that Fatah would ever recover Gaza.
In any event, I believe that at least when it comes to doing the normal everyday things that governments do (roads, sewers, etc.), Hamas will actually do a better job of governing than Fatah. The problem is that Hamas will turn Gaza into an Islamic caliphate. In the short term, maybe it won't be such a bad problem - the crazy fatwas and honor killings will be a tremendous embarrassment to the Arab world.

Expecting this to stop at Gaza is likely unrealistic. There are plenty of Hamas supporters in places like Jenin, Shchem (Nablus - where there has already been fighting) and Hebron. As was shown in Gaza, the numerical superiority of Fatah forces is meaningless.

So where will Israel go from here? Here's one indication:
In Israel, defense officials said talking with Hamas might become unavoidable, as closing all crossings from the Gaza Strip into Israel to avoid intra-Palestinian violence leaking into Israel would soon cause an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.

Israeli sources were quoted as saying that following the developments in the strip, Israel was now viewing the Gaza Strip as a "separate enemy state."
Despite the claims of the Olmert-Barak-Livni junta that 'moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen has to gain control of the Gaza Strip before a 'Palestinian' state reichlet can be established, Abu Mazen seems to be moving in the opposite direction. Giving up - at least for the time being - on Hamas meeting his demands for reconciliation, and refusing to fight Hamas as needs to be done, Abu Mazen is setting up a separate 'Palestinian' parliament in Judea and Samaria. Thus in effect, Abu Mazen is implementing what I called the two-reichlet solution: One in Gaza controlled by Hamas, and one in Judea and Samaria, controlled by Fatah, at least for now.
The PLO Central Council, which met in Ramallah on Sunday, is expected to vote to dissolve the current Palestinian Legislative Council [PLC], which is dominated by Hamas. The council is also scheduled to call for early parliamentary elections in the Palestinian territories.

However, it's unclear how such elections would take place in the Gaza Strip, which is entirely controlled by Hamas.

Several Fatah officials have also called to dissolve the PLC, which has been paralyzed since Hamas took full control of the Gaza Strip in June.

The move is set to deepen divisions among the Palestinians and further consolidate the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. It is also likely to hamper efforts by some Arab countries to patch up the differences between Fatah and Hamas.

The 116-member PLO Central Council would serve as a temporary parliament to fill the vacuum after the PLC was dissolved, a senior Palestinian Authority official told The Jerusalem Post.

"Of course we will hold new parliamentary elections in the Palestinian territories," he said. "But in the meantime, the council will fulfill the duties of the parliament."
Of course, Hamas may have something to say about this:
Hamas officials warned the PLO council against dissolving the Legislative Council. In the last parliamentary elections in January 2006, Hamas won 74 of the PLC's 132 seats.

Ahmed Bahr, acting PLC speaker and a Hamas legislator, said even Abbas did not have the power to disband the parliament. "According to article 113 of the Palestinian Basic Law, no one has the power to dissolve the parliament," he said. "The PLC can't even be dissolved under a state of emergency."

Bahr dismissed allegations that the PLC has been paralyzed since Hamas took over the Gaza Strip. "The parliament has been holding regular meetings, but the problem is that Fatah has been boycotting the sessions," he said. "This is in addition to the fact that Israel has arrested many Hamas legislators, including Speaker Abdel Aziz Dweik."

Hamas legislator Salah Bardaweel said any decision to dissolve the PLC would be "unconstitutional" and "illegal." He added: "The so-called PLO Central Council is an illegitimate body, as are most of the PLO institutions. The PLO hasn't held internal elections for many years and its members are all in office in violation of the law and regulations."

Ayman Taha, another Hamas figure in the Gaza Strip, accused Abbas of using PLO institutions to reverse the results of the last parliamentary elections.

"The PLO Central Council was never elected by the Palestinians," he said. "Most of its members were appointed either by Yasser Arafat or by Hamas. How can a body that was never elected dissolve a democratically elected parliament?"
Condi should be pleased. The 'Palestinians' are really getting into this 'democracy' thing.


But seriously, the Olmert-Barak-Livni junta would have to be more insane than I thought they were to make an agreement with Abu Mazen when he controls the Arab populated portions of Judea and Samaria, if that. Are they going to write off anything that's in Kassam-range of Gaza?


At 2:27 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

My view is if it was possible, Israel would cut off ties and supplies to both Palestinian factions and let them swim or sink. Israel is under no obligation to subsidize a mortal enemy behind on its destruction.

If the Palestinians really want a state (if that's in fact what they are after) let them build with sweat and hard work the way the Jews built their own state. The world doesn't owe them a free ride and nothing says Israel has to give them a state.


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