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Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Who would want to burn Lebanon down and why?

There have been fires raging all over the Mount Lebanon area today, particularly around the historic village of Deir el Qamar, and blogger Ya Libnan is now reporting that they have been confirmed to have been started by arsonists.
General Darwish Hobaika, Head of the Civil Defense department has declared that "the fires were intentionally set". He added : "The fires are now mostly under control and will be completely extinguished within about hours."

Hobaika did not give any details about the investigation that led to the conclusion that the fire was caused by arson

In Deir el Qamar, which was badly affected , the fire was completely extinguished at about 5:00 PM Beirut time . 3 houses of prominent residents of Deir el Qamar were destroyed by the Fire: They are the houses of General John Nassif, Attorney Fouad el Bustani and Maroun el Bustani.

Deir el Qamar is not the only place. According to National Review Online's media blog, some 32 fires were burning in Lebanon this afternoon. Guess who many Lebanese believe is behind these fires....

Just got off the phone with Camille Chamoun, the grandson of the late Lebanese president of the same name.

He tells me:

This is not a coincidence. This is the work of our neighbors. The Syrians have a lot of operators here, and this puts extreme pressure on our government.

He adds:

This could be a possible diversion [of the police and military forces] to launch a coup d'etat.

Well, if that coup is going to happen, it's apparently not going to happen today. But this could be a step in a softening up process.

NRO reported just yesterday that Hezbullah is building up battle positions in Lebanon:
I write this with some acceptance of risk (everything is a risk here). But it's something that must be published.

I know for a fact that Hezbollah is building defenses and fortifications from which they can launch attacks in the south (where I was two days ago), in the Bekaa Valley, and in Al Dahiyeh (the Hezbollah security square in Beirut, which we covertly entered and moved through twice during our photo-reconnaissance a few days ago). This is not hearsay: This is reality.

The construction (some of which I have seen with my own eyes) is being contracted through the Lebanese government with Wa'ad, a Hezbollah-owned company created – as both a front and a company based in Lebanon — from Jihad Al-Bina, an Iranian-based company on the U.S. terrorist-watchlist.

Wa'ad ("the promise") is 100-percent owned and operated by Hezbollah. And the company is reconstructing houses and commercial buildings, which were destroyed during the war in 2006. But the houses are being rebuilt – as they were — with secret interconnecting corridors linking the houses together in a link-by-link network of fighting positions. There are tunnels running beneath the houses linking them with other buildings and adjacent neighborhoods, as well as to huge underground command posts. And there are walls being constructed with concealed weapons-storage spaces.

Families living and working in those buildings are renting apartments away from the ongoing construction, and they are doing so on Hezbollah's dime.

Other tunnels (basically arms smuggling corridors), which were constructed before the war, run between Palestinian and Hezbollah-controlled areas in Lebanon to Syria.

Why is the Lebanese government permitting this? It's far too complicated to address here.

Is Hezbullah preparing for civil war in Lebanon or for another round with Israel? My hunch is that they're preparing for civil war in Lebanon and that's the connection to those fires. Here are several reasons why:

1. The Hariri investigation is closing in on Assad's Syria. Assad needs a distraction and he needs something that will take that investigation off the table. That's why anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians continue to be assassinated.

2. If anyone is going to start a war with Israel right now, it will be Syria or Iran, not Hezbullah.

3. Hezbullah stated today that it will not join in a war against Israel if Syria and Iran are attacked by Israel. (To which my son asks, "why would you believe [Hezbullah], they're a bunch of liars," and my response is that I don't believe Hezbullah is ready yet for another offensive war against Israel, especially one where Syria and Iran are likely to be involved, which means that they will not be able to resupply Hezbullah during the war if Israel is winning).

4. Syria needs Lebanon to be firmly in its camp. The way for that to happen - from Syria's perspective - is to have Hezbullah and its allies running Lebanon.


At 12:40 AM, Blogger Daniel434 said...

Thank You for blogging this because I have not heard this anywhere else, the fires are not being covered by any mainstream news sites(AFAIK). You have connected the dots well. This will be extremely interesting to watch and I wonder if there is a coup, what Israel's role will be because certainly they do not want a Lebanon controlled by Hezbo's and Syria.


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