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Wednesday, July 25, 2007

On the Golan Heights

Greetings from the Golan Heights.

We are about five miles from the Syrian border, staying in the home of a reader who generously offered to house Mrs. Carl and me and most of our children. This is called family vacation.

It took about three hours to drive here from Jerusalem, and by the time we started to scale the Heights (literally - it's practically straight up) it was nightfall. I didn't get to look out the windows much since I did all the driving, but the kids confirm seeing many tanks on the way up here.

But it's not just Israel that's being targeted. Amir Oren is reporting in today's Haaretz that there are Hezbullah sleeper cells in the US waiting to be unleashed if the US or Israel go over the red line - the red line being an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
The head of American intelligence, Admiral (ret.) Mike McConnell, revealed a secret a week ago: Hezbollah sleeper cells are waiting in the United States for the order to carry out terror attacks. The unclassified version of the intelligence assessment, the one distributed to the public, has been stating for years that Hezbollah has the ability and intentions to act against American targets and assets. However, this description has been vague enough to deceive the public into thinking that attacks are expected only in Lebanon and other places in the Middle East. McConnell, who crafted his speech on the fly while on the way from the White House to another location in Washington, tripped up and let slip what the American intelligence community had discovered from its sources and was trying to hide.

The difference between the two versions is significant for the American citizen. Attacks on his soldiers in Iraq, Afghanistan and other ends of the earth have become routine. This is not the case if inside America they are on the alert for terror acts by underground cells.

Ostensibly, it is a considerable intelligence achievement if the Central Intelligence Agency has acquired information about Hezbollah's emergency plans. On the day the attacks come, the surprise will not be total.

But this is a deterrent rather than a warning, and the true achievement belongs to Hassan Nasrallah, his operations officer Imad Morniyeh, and the dispatchers in Tehran who want to frighten Washington to the point of thwarting a military initiative against them. In this complex game, the big winner could well be Syria.
Oren's analysis is not entirely accurate. His election predictions are off. Israelis are as unlikely to elect Ehud Barak as Americans are to elect Hillary Clinton. In other words, it's possible but it's not really likely. And I don't think Americans can or will tolerate a nuclear Iran. I don't think it's ever going to get to a Clinton administration - even if God forbid she wins.

I warned about this a long time ago. So for those of you who read diligently, it should be no surprise. But hopefully this will keep immigration reform from passing Congress - at least for the time being. The last thing you want to do is legalize all those 'peaceful' Muslims.


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