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Friday, February 23, 2007

War not is likely in 2007

If you don't read past the headlines today on the websites of the Jerusalem Post and YNet, you would think that war is unlikely in 2007. But if you read between the lines, you find out that the opposite is true. War is very likely in 2007, and if I were betting I'd look for it late in the spring when the weather gets warm. Here's why:

1. Hezbullah has returned to its pre-war strength. When the head of Israeli military intelligence told the Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee about that fact earlier in the week, he was forced by 'Defense Minister' Amir Comrade Peretz to retract. But all the retractions in the world are not going to change reality. And reality is that Hezbullah is stronger than last summer.

2. While YNet reports that a wide-scale confrontation with Syria in 2007 is 'unlikely,' Haaretz is reporting that the United States has ordered Israel to cease all negotiations with Syria.
The American argument is that even "exploratory talks" would be considered a prize in Damascus, whose policy and actions continue to undermine Lebanon's sovereignty and the functioning of its government, while it also continues to stir unrest in Iraq, to the detriment of the U.S. presence there.
While there is some argument over whether Syria really wants peace (I agree with the Mossad that they do not, but Military Intelligence thinks they do), there is nothing to deter them from making war, and it would certainly be in Iran's interest for Israel to fight Syria - it would distract the world from Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. And Iran controls Syria now.

3. YNet admits that any 'irregular incident' could set off the Gaza Strip. But with the 'Palestinians' moving towards reconciliation, it is likely that once they are reconciled they likely will, as 'moderate' 'Palestinian President' Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen has suggested in the past, turn their guns on Israel. So don't let anyone kid you. Unfortunately, it's likely to be a hot summer here forty summers after the Six Day War.


At 10:42 PM, Blogger Lichty said...

Olmert will not go back to war. he was a huge loser in the war, and any provocations will be met with restraint.

Until you oust that buffoon and his even more clownish - binocular inept Stalin lookalike, Israel will take as many puches as the Arabs have to give. Let's hope you do not have a glass jaw.

Also it bears noting that up north, Hizbollah is being protected by Europe's finest. Olmert would not risk hurting a European to get to a terrorist.

At 10:43 PM, Blogger Lichty said...

Also, don't you find it a little ironic that that the US would order Olmert to cut off communications with Damascus, but would force them to negotiate with Abu Mazen.

At 5:37 AM, Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

dont worry, the arabs will not miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity..

they will take this time to regroup and trust me, attack again

this time, i hope every israeli gets to actually aim and shoot back thins time


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