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Sunday, November 12, 2006

Hezbullah re-entrenched in southern Lebanon

This won't come as news to anyone who reads this blog regularly, although it may be the first time that the mainstream media has come out and said it: The Sunday Times of London is reporting this morning that Hezbullah is back in place in southern Lebanon. But wait, it gets worse:
FOUR months after Israel launched its onslaught against Hezbollah, the Lebanese guerrillas are back in south Lebanon stronger than ever and armed with more rockets than they had before the conflict, according to Israeli intelligence.


“Since the ceasefire, additional rockets, weapons and military equipment have reached Hezbollah,” said an Israeli intelligence officer. “We assume they now have about 20,000 rockets of all ranges — a bit more than they had before July 12.”

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has confirmed the Israeli estimate. In a recent interview with al-Manar, the Hezbollah television station, he claimed his organisation had restocked its arsenal and now held at least 30,000 rockets, sufficient for five months of war.

Israeli military intelligence has warned the government that renewed fighting with Hezbollah, which it regards as a terrorist organisation, should be expected as early as next spring.

In response, Israeli forces have taken emergency action. They have postponed a plan to reduce the length of national service — currently 36 months for men and about 24 months for women — and are stepping up production of better armoured tanks.

They are also grouping all special forces into a single new division and are developing laser technology, jointly with the United States, to shoot down Hezbollah’s rockets.


Iranian-made long-range Zelzal rockets, which could reach Tel Aviv, have been stored in hidden locations. “We’re now in a race to locate the new rockets,” said a Mossad source.

Tracking down the Iranian rockets was one of Israel’s few military successes in the summer. According to sources, the Israeli air force destroyed them on the first night of battle. “We believe Hezbollah have learnt their lesson and it will be much harder to locate them next time,” said the source.

Israel has not yet found a way to tackle the threat from the short and medium-range rockets. It is developing the Nautilus laser-guided cannon in an attempt to intercept them. “It still remains to be seen if the laser gun will work,” said another source. “But it will take up to three years and might be too late for the next war.”

Israel is alarmed at the burgeoning self-confidence of Nasrallah and what it perceives as his intention to undermine Lebanon’s fragile government and take over the country’s politics.
For those of you starting at the top and reading down, make sure you see The beginning of the end for Lebanon?

And they want Israel to stop the reconaissance flights?

Finally, note the one thing that is not being done: replacing the top echelons of the army and the government. The same people who screwed up last summer are likely to be in charge in the spring.


At 2:25 PM, Blogger Michael said...

Well, there's no surprise here, is there? For several months now, we've been seeing how UNIFIL wouldn't stop the smuggling, or enter the refugee camps to disarm terrorists, or keep Hezbollah away from the border.

As for the top levels of the IDF, we can always hope that they've leraned their lesson, and won't repeat their mistakes (they'll just make new mistakes).


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