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Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Lebanese Political Journal: Where we stand right now

Lebanese Political Journal: Where we stand right now

Things in Lebanon are not quite so rosy for Hezbullah as they appear to be. This post from a Lebanese blogger indicates that all hell may be about to break loose.

Hat Tip: Pajamas Media
No maybe political statements have been made from the 14 March camp, but Druze leader and regular Lebanese rhetorical firestarter Walid Jumblatt announced that he will hold a press conference on Thursday entitled, "We will not surrender to Assad and Nasrallah's conditions."

The tone in Lebanon has already changed. According to friends in Beirut, not even the Shia were happy with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's post-ceasefire speech.

The Shia community is the most vulnerable right now. Hezbollah is using fierce rhetoric, most likely, to intimidate other Lebanese politicians and sects from criticizing them and to delay any talk of their disarmament. This rhetorical move is sending shivers down the spines of most Shia because now is precisely the time to talk about Hezbollah's weapons. We were talking about them before in an effort to prevent something happening like what just occurred. Now, the urgency to talk is even greater.

Hezbollah's rhetoric is frightening many Shia because they are without homes, food, electricity, medication, money, roads, utilities, and other necessities. They could take the fight against Israel. They can't take much more. And they definitely can't take arms against the people who most recently supported them when they were in need; the very people who currently in a much better state than those who lost their homes.

Many Shia claim that if Hezbollah doesn't provide them with support very soon, they will no longer be able to support the organization. Many Shia were willing to support Hezbollah through thick and thin because Hezbollah took care of them. In Dahieh Jounoubieh (the southern suburbs of Beirut which is primiarly Shia and where Hezbollah's headquarters are located), Hezbollah was referred to as chebab (guys) who took care of all sorts of mundane problems.

Now that they have truly suffered for Hezbollah, the Shia want something in return. Their houses are gone. Their furniture is gone. Their loved ones are gone. And they want to know if Hezbollah will help offset their losses. In his speech, Nasrallah claimed he would. But most likely that support will be too little, too late.
I don't quite know how to reconcile that with the New York Times article I ran this morning that said that Hezbullah is rebuilding the country with help from Iran, but in any event, read the whole thing.


At 2:00 AM, Blogger Freedom Fighter said...

Hi Carl.
It'd be nice, and I wish it were so but I don't agree.

Here's how the Lebanon `ceasefire' is being implented

For one thing, Nasrallah has already sent fully armed troops from Hezbollah bases in the Bek'aa and the North down south, in the guise of `relief workers'. And as such, when the big donor money comes in, look for Hezbollah to get a healthy piece of the action.

Siniora has already caved in even on the most elementary demands on Hezbollah, like their being disarmed and pulled out of the South. Now, he's agreed that they can keep their arms and stick around provided the don't openly display them!

And no one is watching the Lebanon/Syria borders as per the resolution..so the rearming of Hezbolla is proceeding as we speak.

Meanwhile, Kofi Annan and the UNSC are putting pressure on the IDF to with draw even before the UNFIL forces and the Lebanese troops are in place south of the Litani.

Siniora needs to be good boy and do what he's told or the Hezbollah MPs will bring down his government. And he will end up in leetle pieces like Hariri and Gamayl.

People may grumble, but the truth is that nobody has the muscle to do anything about it.

Hezbollah IS Lebanon.

Time to get rid of Olmert, Halutz, Peretz and Livni, get some real leadership and prepare for round two..which may not be all that far away IMO, sorry to say.


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