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Monday, July 17, 2006

Katyushas hit Jezreel Valley

Good morning to all of you.

During the night, Katyusha rockets hit the Jezreel Valley for the first time, landing in Afula (where my son plans to go to Yeshiva in August, God willing), Natzeret Ilit (Upper Nazareth) Migdal HaEmek and Givat Ela. The army believes that at least some of those rockets were aimed at the nearby Ramat David airbase.

For my Christian readers, I have not seen any reports of Katyushas landing in Nazareth itself, which is near Upper Nazareth. But I am sure you are aware that the Islamic movement wished to build a mosque next to the Church of the Annunciation, so it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they would like to hit the church. The good news is that the Katyushas are not a precise weapon, so they cannot really target the church from Lebanon.

Last night's attack marked the southernmost region rockets have reached. Six people suffered from shock.

Afula is located some 45 kilometers southeast of Haifa. It is not clear to me exactly how far that is from Lebanon, but it's certainly not the furthest that Hezbullah can reach. In fact, HaAretz is reporting this morning that the army is concerned that Hezbullah will use the Zelzal rockets known to be in its possession and target the area in and around Tel Aviv. Then it would ReallyBeInMyBackYard. I wonder what would happen if a Katyusha hit a Yesh Gvul rally (left-wing 'activists' who rallied last night in Tel Aviv calling for Israel to 'negotiate' with Hamas and Hezbullah, and to please turn off the lights when you leave the country for abroad).

Katyusha rockets also landed last night in Julis, Abu Snaan, and Kfar Yasif and in and around Acre. Yes, there are Arabs in some of those towns.

The Katyushas are continuing this morning. Tsfat (Safed), Tverya (Tiberias), Akko (Acre) and Haifa have all been hit this morning. Harvey in Efrat is telling me that Prime Minister Olmert is to make a 'special announcement' later this morning. I can think of a lot of nasty comments but I will restrain myself - we are in a war!

Sderot was also hit this morning with Kassams on the Gaza front. Two people were lightly wounded by shrapnel.

Here in Jerusalem, it is relatively quiet, bli ayin hara, but tense. I still have not heard from my Tel Aviv-based client who went to Caesaria for 'vacation' yesterday - I suspect she spent the night in shelters. My wife has to go to a client in the center of the country today, and I'm not happy about it but she says there is no choice. I spent yesterday working on a legal memo, and that's what I will spend most of today doing as well, when I am not on here. Fortunately, it does not require me to go far from home.


At 8:37 AM, Blogger Chris said...

Your nation's mobilization plans are almost complete. On to the Bekaa! The Iranian General Staff has advised Ahmadhi-Nejad that the IDF will stay south of the Litani. Big mistake. IDF will risk its right flank and go north to the Bekaa this time, completely bypassing Beirut. Airborne troops and Special Forces will precede them, to hunt down Pasdaran Rocket troops and Advisers. IDF mech infantry to follow on and secure the lines of supply and deal with Hez stay behinds (basically, exterminate the Hez-this will be a bloody campaign...).

The Paras will block the path of retreat to the Syrian sanctuaries, while a show of strength by the IAF and the Americans off shore will keep the Boy President on the sidelines.

The political assumption is as follows. Rice has advised Bush that signals intelligence indicates that the Iranians are in this up to their necks. The Hez Offensive is Iran's definitive answer to her May 30th proposal on atomic weapons disposal, not the dross the Iranians issued today. This is ALL about Iran's atomic weapons program. It is only marginally to do with some crazy Lebanese Shi'ite fascist named Nasrallah. This is hard for Israelis to understand, suffering under the Katyushas. However, Ahmadhi-Nejad never would have permitted his client to initiate hostilities with the Zionist Entity unless he believed both Israel and the U.S. to be weak, and now the optimal time to distract both with a low level conflict that would sap their resources and turn their attention away from Persia and its Bomb.

The USG and the IDF General Staff have come to similar conclusions: take the Iranian chess piece off the board now, while we have this golden chance.

Expect the Iranians to start chomping at the bit in Iraq, getting their toadie Sadr up and running. However, the Mahdi Army is no Hezboallah. They are about to lose a valuable asset to the IDF for years to come, and Ahmadhi-Nejad is only now realizing that perhaps he overreached.

Realizing the trap is about to be sprung, the Zelzals will be unleashed on Tel-Aviv and possibly Damona.


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