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Sunday, February 12, 2006

Demographic threat a myth

You may recall that last week, I posted about Corruption in the Census, which indicated that the Palestinian population numbers in Judea and Samaria have been vastly overstated. Now, comes news that even without considering that corruption, Israel does not have a demographic problem. So who is pretending that Israel has a 'demographic problem' and why? The answer is pretty obvious.... This article by Yoram Ettinger is from Friday's Ynet News (Yedioth Aharonoth):

Here's an earthshaking fact: Now that Israel has pulled out of Gaza, there is a clear, firm Jewish majority in the territory west of the Jordan River. 67 percent, in fact.

In contrast to popular notion, this majority is assured to continue well into the future, in light of a shrinking Arab population in Judea and Samaria (1. 8 percent), a rising Jewish population in Israel (2.1 percent), large scale Arab emigration since 1950 and Jewish aliya (immigration to Israel) that began in 1882. Hamas' victory will spur on Arab emigration (especially amongst PA employees and their families), and growing anti-Semitism in France and the former Soviet Union will spur aliya (Jewish immigration).

Israel's demographic establishment is based on predictions released by the Palestinian Bureau of Statistics in 1997, according to which there are currently 2.4 million Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria. In reality, there are 1.4 million.

The Bureau claimed there would be a population explosion of some 170 percent in the 14 years between 1990-2004, from 1.5 million people according to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics to 3.8 million according to the Palestinians, but not one demographer agreed.

How does one come up a million short? A new American-Israeli study presented at last month's Herzliya Conference by California researcher Bennet Zimmerman proves that the Palestinian predictions bore no semblance to the facts on the ground. For example:

Read the whole article to see examples.

Zimmerman's study may be found here.


At 3:36 AM, Blogger felix said...

This is significant. I favored disengagement from Gaza--and somehow getting Egypt to take it. But now that Israel is out of Gaza, the demographic situation re Jews and Muslims in Israel and Judea-Summaria--West Bank is much more positive. I remember when Sharon first annouced leaving Gaza, his critics said that it was "Gaza first and last". Actually, that's my position.


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